John Mulkey, Housing Guru

For several months we’ve seen encouraging REPORTS describing how consumers were paying down their credit card and other debt, a positive sign for the long term health of the economy. However, a recent article in MarketWatch, based upon numbers from CardHub.com says that may not be the case.

It seems that consumers are not being more frugal, but defaulting on their credit card debt in huge numbers. Of more than $93 billion drop in outstanding credit card debt, all but about $10 billion was due to charge-offs by the banks.

So the good news isn’t really very good at all. Charge-offs of credit card debt by banks continues at record levels; and while the rate of increase is slowing, the only bright spot is that consumers may be positively altering their spending habits.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

With many homeowners unwilling to accept the prices being offered by today’s buyers, some have taken the remodeling approach. If the reason you wish to move is to have a new kitchen or bath, or to have additional space, remodeling may be just the answer.

Today is a great time to remodel, and the changes just might make you fall in love with your home all over again. Materials and labor are at extremely competitive prices, and the government may even help foot the bill by providing tax credits for energy saving upgrades.

However, those who are seriously considering a remodel or addition should ask themselves the following:

● How long do I expect to remain in the home? Most remodeling projects fail to recoup their cost when the home is sold. Staying in the home several years allows you to spread the cost over a longer period.

● Will the features or changes I desire appeal to a wide range of future buyers? Don’t make your home so “unique” that it will be difficult to sell.

● Will the changes I make cause my home to be significantly more expensive than other homes in the neighborhood? Unless you plan to remain in the home forever—a rare occurrence—avoid changes that will make it far more expensive than others in your neighborhood. Not only will it be difficult to sell in the future, but you’ll probably lose much of the money spent remodeling.

● If financed, will the additional expense be a burden to my budget? Don’t stress yourself or your budget by doing work you cannot easily afford.

● Can I afford the job if it exceeds my budget by 20%? The work may create unexpected expenses, and you may decide to make changes during the process. Few remodeling jobs are completed within the original estimate.

● Can I tolerate the disruption to my life? The job will create lots of dust, noise, and you may have occasional disruptions of water or electricity. You’ll also have strangers in your home who may arrive early in the morning.

● Can I accomplish the same thing by just de-cluttering or re-purposing a room? Getting rid of unnecessary junk/furniture may help to create the space you need; or you may find that an unused living room or spare bedroom can be re-purposed to serve your needs.

● Can I afford the subsidiary costs of remodeling? Be sure to budget for any new furniture the remodel may require; and be aware that your insurance, property taxes, and utilities may increase due to your changes.

If, after answering the above you still believe remodeling to be the best approach, here are a few tips.

● Before interviewing contractors, make a list of everything you might want. Try to be as specific as possible when listing the changes or additions you wish.

● When hiring a contractor, interview at least 3, and get references of recent jobs completed, as well as banking and supplier references. Professionals should be able to provide several references of their recent work; those who can’t should be avoided. And in today’s tough economic environment you’ll need to make certain that your contractor has the financial stability to complete the job. Pick a contractor who is likeable. You may be working with them several weeks or months. Go with your “gut.”

● Check the references—all of them. If you can visit a recently completed job, that’s even better.

● Professional contractors will supply a written contract, including the scope of the work, building plans if necessary, and specifications for materials, appliances, and fixtures. They should also provide copies of state and local licenses, and certificates of workman’s comp and general liability.

● Don’t base your selection of contractor solely upon price. The most expensive isn’t necessarily the best, and the lowest price may not ultimately be the least expensive.

● Never pay for a job up front. The risk of losing some or all of your money is too great. The recession has brought out lots of “scammers.” Don’t be taken in by slick sales talk. While large jobs may require periodic payments as work is completed, don’t allow the payments to exceed the work in place. Ask for a payment schedule up front and make sure you understand it fully.

● Ask the contractor to provide Lien Waivers as requests for payment are submitted. Some states allow unpaid workers or suppliers to place liens on homes to collect for unpaid labor or material, causing unsuspecting homeowners to pay for work twice.

Finally, be as flexible as possible. On occasion you may have to compromise and disruptions may sometimes be frustrating. If you can tolerate the disappointments when things don’t go as planned, and if you don’t allow yourself to become stressed over the minor annoyances, your remodel just may leave you with the home of your dreams.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

In a POST I did last September I explained how the increase in sales directly attributed to the First Time Buyer Tax Credit showed the cost of the program to be as much as $43,000 per additional sale. New information reported by CalculatedRisk.com shows that a tepid response to the program’s extension may leave us with a cost that is more than double that of the original credit, and could equal as much as $100,000 per additional home sold.

Not only does the cost far exceed any benefit from such an artificial stimulation, but the increase in sales appears to be only “stealing” those sales from the future. I reported the same result for the original tax credit in a POST I did last November. Regarding the current credit, Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, stated, “We clearly pushed demand forward. . . .” Additionally, according to government reports, the original tax credit experienced as much as $500 million in fraud, including fraudulent requests from as many as 53 IRS agents.

Whether we’re talking of stimulating the auto industry with Cash for Clunkers, increasing jobs as in Cash for Caulkers, or boosting the housing industry with the Tax Credit, such programs appear to be ill conceived, fraught with problems, and ultimately cost far more than originally intended. Those of us in the housing industry as well as our political leaders must acknowledge that the recovery will be slow, and that attempts to speed it up only result in wasted money and the potential for future bubbles.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

An article on Yahoo Finance provides yet another example of why artificial attempts to stimulate the housing market are a bad idea. When offered on a grand scale, as in the easy money of the last decade, they only serve to create bubble markets which at some point must collapse. And we’ve all experienced the disasters created by the bursting of such bubbles. And when the offer is more limited, as in the First Time Buyer Tax Credit or Cash for Clunkers, they do little more than “steal” future sales.

According to the article, Realtors® around the country are reporting a tepid response to the present $6,500 credit for existing home owners. The author outlined several reasons, some of which I discussed in a recent POST; and all point to the improbability that large numbers of existing home owners will be seeking new digs in the near term. Many are either underwater or have lost so much equity that a sale would fail to generate sufficient cash for a new purchase, commission, closing costs, and moving expenses. And, of course, millions are currently unemployed.

While the spring market may experience some growth, it now appears that a dramatic increase in sales is unlikely.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

In a post I did a couple of days ago, Six Reasons Why The Housing Market Peaks Will Not Return, I outlined reasons why I don't anticipate a return the glory days of the past decade; and while most seemed to understand my purpose for writing the post, some suggested that I should refrain from such "gloom and doom" projections.

Some even suggested that I had some sort of agenda, that I would somehow benefit by creating negative expectations. Strangely, I’ve been criticized when I pointed out opportunities in the housing market and as well as those times I advised caution; but I have no vested interest in either promoting or impeding home sales. The purpose of my blog is to share the knowledge I’ve gained during 4 decades in the housing industry.

I write to help both buyers and sellers make the most prudent choices, and I base my posts upon what I have observed in the market as well as the overall economy. Is it just the opinion of one man? Of course it is; my opinion is the only one I can have. And, I don’t claim to have all the answers, but I can offer the experience of having come through several recessions. I make no attempt to change the opinion of anyone, for I have no benefit in doing so; but I do attempt to encourage an intelligent discourse so that we may all benefit.

Some of those commenting have reminded me of the cyclical nature of the housing market--that we only have to wait for things to return to business as usual. There have even predictions of a greater boom to follow. But this is not the recessions of 1980 – 82, or 1990 – 91. This is not the dot com bust. Conditions are vastly different.

Yet, regardless of what has transpired, many expect the government’s housing and stimulus programs to restore things to normal. However, their efforts to date have been dismal failures. The projections for HAMP, the program intended to save millions from foreclosure, appear to have been grossly overestimated. And the government’s stimulus and TARP have only served to keep failed institutions in business, while creating few jobs.

Today we have predictions of a bottoming of the housing market, talk of "green shoots," and the end of the recession; but we have also had voices in our past, financial “experts” who have also made predictions, and much of what they described was based more in wishful thinking than in fact. Some of their predictions caused others to take action or make purchases and investments based upon the information presented; and many suffered greatly.

Some of the more blatant examples are listed here:

● “We will not have any more crashes in our time.” John Maynard Keynes, 1927

● “There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.” Irving Fisher, economist, Sept. 5, 1929

● “The depression is over.” Herbert Hoover, June 1930

● “This is the time to buy stocks.” R. W. McNeel, financial analyst, October, 1929

And more recently:

● (We will have) “an on-budget surplus of almost $500 billion . . . in fiscal year 2010” and “an implicit on-budget surplus . . . well past 2030.” Alan Greenspan, 2001

● . . . “we see no serious broad spillover to banks and thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market.” Ben Bernanke, May, 2007.

I have more than a hundred pages of similar predictions, all flawed. What that demonstrates, of course, is that mine could be flawed as well. But if I’m even partially correct, is it not better to prepare for the consequences, to base our decisions upon the potential that the market will not recover as it has in the past? Everyone must ultimately make their own decisions, and must steer their course based upon their interpretation of the information presented. If my post helps some to make more prudent choices, then my efforts have been worthwhile.

Finally, I’m neither predicting the total collapse of housing nor advising buyers to become renters. For those who need and can afford a home, great bargains exist in almost all markets. Home ownership can provide advantages that far exceed any financial return; and for those who make wise purchases, the future may still provide a healthy return.

My original post was intended to serve as a guide for those unfamiliar with the intricacies of today’s market, for those expecting the market to follow past trends. As I have outlined, I don’t believe it will; and I would advise anyone considering the purchase of a home to seek the guidance of a real estate professional to help them through the mine field of short sales, FSBOs, and foreclosures. The consequences of making the wrong purchase can be dreadful, but the rewards of a well-researched purchase can be significant.

For more on the advantages I see in home ownership, I would suggest reading the following posts:

Home Values Have Remained Unchanged

The Best of Times or the Worst of Times to Buy a Home?

Why Should I Use a Realtor?

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

Recent conflicting reports about the housing market and whether or not it is truly in recovery have left consumers as well as those in the real estate business more than a bit confused; those whose business plan is dependent upon a full or quick recovery should proceed with caution. I believe the housing market is far from recovered, and, in fact, will not return to the levels of the past decade for many years—if ever. I see six reasons why the housing market peaks can not return, that it will never regain its past “glory days.”

● Robust home sales are dependent upon consumer confidence in the economy. Consumers must feel that both their personal economy as well as that of the nation is on sound footing before committing to such a major, long-term purchase, especially on the heels of the longest recession in more than half a century. Thus far, consumers are far from confident.

● A vigorous recovery of the housing market cannot occur as long as we have unusually high unemployment. While there is much disagreement on when and how our recovery will occur, the financial experts all agree that unemployment will remain at higher than normal levels for several years, and some projections do not indicate a recovery to “full” employment for as much as ten years. With at least 20 million unemployed or underemployed, and with awareness that many of the jobs lost will never return, a high rate of joblessness could possibly become the norm.

● The dramatic loss of home equity will significantly limit the pool of available move-up buyers. In the past, move-up buyers used the equity from their former home to help them purchase a larger/more expensive one; however, declining home values with the associated loss of trillions in equity means fewer sellers will have the resources to purchase another home.

● A continued high rate of foreclosures will depress both the housing market and the hopes of many potential buyers. The millions who have experienced foreclosure will be automatically ousted from the buying pool. For some, several years of damage to their credit rating will be the defining factor; and others will become permanent renters, avoiding the potential for further pain and the trauma associated with foreclosure.

● A slow increase in mortgage rates will reduce the number of qualified buyers. As we experience the higher mortgage payments associated with rising interest rates, many will fail to qualify for loans on the homes of their choice. Others, having been “spoiled” by the low rates of the past decade, will stay out of the market hoping for a return to those rates.

● Tighter lending restrictions will also result in fewer buyers qualifying for home loans. And the restrictions, combined with the declines in credit scores experienced by millions of consumers will only further reduce the number of buyers.

Additionally, there are other factors such as: high levels of consumer debt, changing demographics, and a diminishing of the appeal of home ownership as a result of experiences during the current recession, will only serve to dramatically alter the housing market for the foreseeable future. While there will always be a group committed to home ownership and will always be homes available for them to purchase, an expectation that the housing market will soon recoup its losses and regain its momentum, for me, seems extremely unlikely.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

In some just released numbers and reported in the LA Times, the Obama administration admits that the $5 billion Weatherization Program, affectionately known as Cash for Caulkers, is a bit more expensive than expected. Like many of the other “Stimulus” programs, it is beginning to look like just another dismal failure. The program’s stated goal was to create 90,000 “Green Jobs” by weatherizing 593,000 homes in its first year. Well, surprise – surprise, they didn’t meet that goal. According to the article, the program has only weatherized about 9,000 homes or about 1.5% of the intended number.

But the news gets better. Not only did the program fail to accomplish anywhere near its stated goal, they spent $522 million dollars just getting started. Based upon their expenditures to date, the costs for weatherizing each of those 9,000 homes is more than $57,000. Now that’s a profit margin this former builder can appreciate. (Let’s see: $1,500 worth of material plus about $500 in labor per home means I could pocket more than $50,000 per house and still pay some Wall Street type bonuses to my crew.)

To be fair to the government—I’m trying to give them the benefit of a modicum of doubt, though I know none is deserved—I’m sure they’ve included their “start-up” costs, and the final cost per home will be significantly lower (jeez, I hope so!). But we all know the realities of such programs. There will be millions in fraud, millions more in contracts to cronies, and the ultimate result will be a waste of more billions of taxpayer money on a program that benefits few.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

Following its most recent meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has issued a statement of its projections about the economy, but instead of “sugar coating” or garbling the message, let’s call it like it is—it’s not a recovery. Chairman Bernanke had already warned us to expect a “jobless recovery,” but exactly what is that? Isn’t that just another way of saying, no recovery? Those without jobs or who are bringing home smaller paychecks or whose employment remains precarious, would have difficulty agreeing that their financial picture is recovering.

For those of us in real estate related businesses, the FOMC said little about their expectations for the housing market; and since housing is a major component of the economy, the omission seems a bit strange. While the November and December reports both mentioned improvement in the housing sector, the January report continued to focus upon last year.

What the report did point out, however, is that the jobs market will remain tenuous at best, and continued high unemployment means no housing recovery. Conversely, the lack of a robust housing market only serves to keep unemployment at higher than normal levels.

Regarding the labor market the report stated:

Participants anticipated that labor market conditions would improve only slowly over the next several years. Their projections for the average unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2010 had a central tendency of 9.5 to 9.7 percent, only a little below the levels of about 10 percent that prevailed late last year. Consistent with their outlook for moderate output growth, participants generally expected that the unemployment rate would decline only about 2.5 percentage points by the end of 2012 and would still be well above its longer-run sustainable rate. Some participants also noted that considerable uncertainty surrounded their estimates of the productive potential of the economy and the sustainable rate of employment, owing partly to substantial ongoing structural adjustments in product and labor markets.

The report further states: The weakness in labor markets continued to be an important concern for the FOMC; moreover, the prospects for job growth remained an important source of uncertainty in the economic outlook, particularly in the outlook for consumer spending.

To translate the above: Unemployment to remain high for several years, and Americans should be prepared for a prolonged period of anemic economic growth. Those whose plans have been based upon a “V” shaped recovery must alter their course or have it altered for them.

Finally, our Fed wizards said: Because current conditions may differ from those that prevailed, on average, over history, participants provide judgments as to whether the uncertainty attached to their projections of each variable is greater than, smaller than, or broadly similar to typical levels of forecast uncertainty in the past . . . (Translated: Everything we’ve said could be wrong, but we’ve stated it well.)

Let’s call it like it is—It’s not a recovery yet; and won’t be one for a long time.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

With all the news about the declines in residential real estate, I thought it would be good to remember that home values have remained unchanged, and, in fact, haven’t changed in decades. In the midst of a recession, and with real estate prices plummeting across the country, how can that be?

It’s all a matter of understanding value and the difference between value and price. While home prices have dropped, home values have remained unchanged. Home prices are determined by the market; home values, by the family residing there.

Certainly home ownership isn’t for everyone, and the current housing market is evidence of that; but for those who can afford to buy and for those who realize the benefits, owning a home may just be the value many are seeking in today’s chaotic environment.

HOME OWNERSHIP PROVIDES:

● An anchor to the community (Owners are more involved in community, civic, and political affairs)

● Stability (Owners move less often and are more likely to develop relationships with neighbors)

● Freedom (Owners can customize or modify their accommodations as they wish and as often as they wish and will reap the financial benefits of their improvements)

● Pride of ownership (Becoming a home owner provides a sense of accomplishment)

● Security (Neighborhoods filled with owners have less crime, and strangers do not have keys to your home)

● Homes provide a place for family activities (Backyard swing sets, tree houses, or room for the family pet)

Yes, real estate prices have suffered, but home values have remained unchanged. Homes are a place where you can plant trees and watch them grow, nurture a garden or a lifetime of memories, and where families can bloom and grow. Owning a home may not make one rich, but that home can enrich a life with a bounty beyond measure.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions

As Treasury copes with mounting foreclosures and the ineffectiveness of its modifications programs, many attempt to ignore how declining home prices impact all of us. Some assume or hope the problem will “self cure” over time. It won’t.

The current foreclosure crisis demands our attention; to ignore it is to deny the potential impact that millions of foreclosures would have upon both the housing market and the overall economy. While it’s impossible to know the precise number, some experts have predicted that we’ll suffer more than 15 million foreclosures over the next five years; and only half that number would pose a serious problem.

While some are busy placing blame upon irresponsible home owners, others point to Realtors® or bankers as the villains; but what most seem to overlook is that regardless of who may be at fault—in reality there is shared responsibility—pointing fingers only distracts from the problem at hand. And that problem is the undeniable fact that continued foreclosures pull down home prices for everyone, shrink the values of lenders’ portfolios, and keep an economic recovery out of reach.

It has been estimated that homeowners have lost as much as $5 trillion in equity in just the past two years; and when values decline below their mortgage amount, responsible homeowners lose a critical economic tool. Unable to borrow against their home, they have no equity “cushion” that might have pulled them through problems with medical expenses, job loss, or other unforeseen financial disasters. And, with their home worth less than they owe, they are unable to sell and rid themselves of a burdensome mortgage.

With about 4 million either in default or foreclosure at the end of 2009, and with unemployment expected to remain high for several years, the number of foreclosures seems likely to rise as both borrowers and lenders exhaust their options. Experts now predict a record 3 million foreclosures for 2010 alone;  and as they occur,  more will become aware of how declining home prices impact all of us. Unless the administration can develop a realistic and workable plan to help struggling homeowners—a Band-Aid will do little against this gushing wound—the housing crisis and accompanying economic doldrums is likely to persist well into this decade.

The Housing Guru: The one source for all your housing questions